In a new study conducted for the FTTH Council Asia-Pacific, the independent telecoms analyst predicts that wireline broadband subscribers in Asia-Pacific will exceed 285 million in 2014. Asia-Pacific FTTx (FTTH/FTTB) will lead the growth of wireline broadband and is expected to exceed 129 million subscribers in 2014, with a CAGR of 26% over four years, compared to 0% for DSL and 5% for cable modem.

Ovum principal analyst and co-author of the study Julie Kunstler says, “Ending 2010, four economies in Asia-Pacific had more than 25% household penetration. South Korea, followed by Japan, Hong Kong, and Taiwan tops the list.”

The study also finds that although China’s FTTx household penetration is still very low, the number of FTTH/B subscribers’ base was close to Japan’s at year-end 2010, reaching almost 20 million subscribers. This leads to substantial future growth in the region.

Julie continues, “Despite a very low household penetration of only 4%, China will take first place for FTTH/B subscriber base, which will exceed 74 million in 2014, representing almost 60% of the FTTB/H subscriber base in the 16 economies.”

Varying FTTH/B subscriber growth rates across the economies are also noted, mainly due to broadband initiatives, government policies, and population characteristics. The top four FTTH/B penetration rate economies will continue to add FTTH/B subscribers, although at lower rates while the other economies will have strong FTTH/B growth rates or strong growth in both FTTH/B and mobile broadband.

“Varying growth patterns across the different countries in Asia-Pacific are seen, reflecting the diversity of the region. For example, Australia’s FTTx CAGR from 2010 to 2014 will be very high (180%) as they are starting from a low base and have plans for significant investment (National Broadband Network), while Japan’s growth will be lower (9%) since its existing base is very high,” Julie says.