1. Economy challenges resolve

I’m going to cheat on this one and group a few concepts together. In short, I am optimistic that the international banks’ efforts to curb inflation through the raising of interest rates will work, causing inflation to slow, thereby blunting but not averting a recession in the early part of next year. Prevailing sentiment also seems to favour the notion of a short recession as well, given many underlying strengths in many economies, including low unemployment and robust government funding.

The big variable is, of course, the war in Ukraine, which has many carry-over effects internationally and could possibly escalate into a global war. Perhaps most concerning is that this outcome is arguably in the hands of a single person. Per the above, all we can do is hold to hope here, which my outlook reflects. Though in full disclosure, I am neither an economist nor an expert on geopolitics, but it does impact my read of the data.

2. Supply chain issues ease

With a recession forecasted, even if limited, demand across sectors will decline, pretty much by definition. This should provide time for many of the remaining supply chain issues within the technology sector to be resolved, thereby improving conditions for pro-AV as well.

As I outline in my other expectations, this may be somewhat challenged for some parts of the business, given relatively high states of demand for some products. While no one typically wishes for a recession, due to the wide-ranging impacts on economies, resolving supply issues could be a silver lining.

The counterpoint would be overly aggressive pullbacks in production, with a late ramping towards the end of the recession, thereby keeping us in a constrained position. Essentially, this describes some of what happened during the pandemic, so hopefully we’ve learned our lesson.

3. In-person > virtual

Getting even closer to our area of expertise here at AVIXA is the future of events. Here we can say pretty definitively, in-person rules! Ok, yes, virtual has become the cool thing to now pontificate about as the future de facto mode. This may happen to some degree, but it seems to ignore the basic human need for in-person connection and the sheer energy that comes from live.

You simply can’t replicate that with any technology that currently appears on our radar, unless you consider holo-decks as being within the realm. Nor can you yet virtually replicate the meet-up phenomenon that naturally happens on a trade show floor.

Others may disagree here, but as a 2023 outlook, it’s pretty easy to say a return to live will continue to fuel recovery in pro AV across a host of markets, future pandemics aside.

4. Office remains part of flexible work options

Contrary to news articles claiming otherwise, offices aren’t going away. They may not get used as often by the employees of a given company, but they will remain part of the suite of places a person will work. Though how we use the office space will likely further evolve. Some amount of individual focus spaces will remain, but perhaps with more emphasis on hoteling, the practice by which employees check into an available workspace each time they are in.

Collaboration space may also become more prevalent, as will perhaps socialising areas to foster employee connection. All of this may require some degree of office redesign, thereby also fueling growth for the pro-AV industry.

5. AV growth will exceed GDP

This is perhaps the easiest of them all and flows from each of the above points. The COVID-related recession impacted pro-AV disproportionately to other industries and markets largely because it caused in-person experiences, the lifeblood of our market, to take a break.

As these experiences return, so too does spending on technology to support them, bolstering our industry. This is a massive tailwind that helps counterbalance other threats, like the current recession, which appears likely to impact other areas of the economy, such as real estate or spending on the home.

After being pent up for two years, consumers want to get out, travel and experience the world again, benefiting areas served by AV. Let’s go get it!